2018年9月6日 星期四

債券雜談 - 紫光系重組 UNIGROUP/THSCPA/PKFOUN

因為近期教育風波, 國家正立令教育部的控股公司唔好再不務正業同埋要將旗下資產重組

從而市場傳出, 並在昨天落實紫光 (365.HK) 的CORPORATE RESTRUCTURE.

母公司清華大學, 直屬國資委 (SASAC), 宣佈將紫光持股賣俾高鐵新城和海南聯合 (30%/6%), 重組完成後將會淨番15%持股

對股票持有者當然影響唔係太大, 都係炒股一隻, 4.0 樓上, 年幾前入個D基本上要再坐多幾會, 但對於債券持有人的影響可謂不少

因為重組, 理論上清華持股跌超過50% 便會TRIGGER COC PUT (CHANGE OF CONTROL PUT), 即係債券持有人可以以101% (即係$101蚊) 沽番張債俾發債人

然而發債人話因為 高鐵新城和海南聯合都係間接CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CONTROL, 以中國術語講, "不用分得那麼細", 咁唔駛COC PUT 啦, 再補多句: COC PUT 我都夠錢找, 所以唔好搞咁多野啦 (無賴程度實在係似曾相識, 閣下自行演繹)

小投資者邊度會睇吖講真, 就算出事咪又係硬食.

如下圖, 市場上對清華GROUP, 包括PKFOUND (方正), TUSPARK, TSINGH, UNIGROUP 等等同系都敬而遠之, NUOXI CAPITAL (清華2023) 更加因為太長年期, 市場又無信心, 跌到89.3, YTM 8.3%

DEUTSCHE BANK BOND 枱係咁COMMENT:


Tus Holdings' new deal last week and announcements by some Tsinghua Unigroup companies that Tsinghua Holdings might transfer its stake has raised questions about possible CoC put. We don't have any details on the buyer, timing, percentage of stake to be sold, etc. But note that the genesis of this is China's requirement that universities should focus on education (local press is calling this China Universities Asset Reform). Hence Peking Founders could also come under the scanner at some point. We have a quick look at the bonds from these three issuers in this note. See Figures 1 & 2 for details of their outstanding USD bonds, and Figure 3 for the last available group structures.
One common feature across all the bond docs from all the issuers is poorly used language in the CoC definition. Amongst the various events that could trigger it, there are no transition words used between the first two events. See example below. Whether there should be an "and" or an "or" in between is open to interpretation. If we were to use common knowledge in Asia HY and the spirit of having CoC, CoC should trigger on the occurrence of any of the events (and not both). However, companies could possibly argue that both events have to be satisfied, which will likely make it difficult for the CoC to trigger. We are going with the assumption for now that there should have been an "or", and hence either of the events will suffice. Please see Figure 4 for CoC language in various bonds.

Example of CoC clause:

(i) Tsinghua University and any other person directly controlled by the central government of the PRC together ceases to directly or indirectly hold or own 100 per cent. of the issued share capital of Tsinghua Holdings;

(ii) Tsinghua Holdings, together with persons controlled by Tsinghua University, ceases to directly or indirectly Control the Company (Tsinghua Unigroup Co., Ltd.);

(iii) the Company ceases to directly or indirectly hold or own 100 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Guarantor; or

(iv) the Guarantor ceases to directly or indirectly hold or own 100 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Issuer.

Even with our assumption that there should be an "or", the CoC won't trigger in all the bonds as the newer ones (i.e., the Tsinghua 21s, 23s and 28s, and Tus Holdings 21s) already provide for a PRC government person to be a permitted holder. We think it's very likely for the stakes to be transferred to other SOEs (if at all). Obviously if the stakes are sold to high rated Central SOEs, bondholders will not want to put back the bonds at all. Amongst the older bonds where CoC could trigger, most of them are already trading close to the put price, with upside potential of just 2-3 points. The only exception is Peking Founders where bonds still offer decent upside in the envisaged scenario.

Separately, it's possible that companies try to do a consent solicitation once CoC is triggered and our read of the bond docs suggests that the threshold required for potential waiver is not high.

Net net, we don't see many convincing ways to play the story. Purely as an event driven trade on CoC, Peking 2023s ($90) look the most interesting to us. We note however that it's group structure is not simple, this is not an easy credit to monitor, there is nothing concrete at this stage to suggest Peking University is also considering stake sale like Tsinghua, and even if it does, CoC might not trigger.

即係連專業的BOND TRADER都唔知, 如果買債個D人真係以為係零風險的話, 小子可以講, 願主保佑你
You don't know you don't know , 如果無風無浪係好幸福的 

我只可以講, 美帝有CHAPTER 21, 大陸有龍門任搬360 

作為小投資者, 你地有無收到以下的GROUP CHART? 相信連間野有幾多隻債都未必清楚

仲要老孖債券?

摶, 從來都唔係問題, 問題係你知唔知自己賭緊咩同埋你又輸唔輸得起, 同埋咩情況下閣下會瀨野 

輸得起先有資格贏, 樓如是, 股債亦如是 

年中不少大股如2382, 2018, 175 都跌左50%, 未計新貴2007, 288 等等仲有準新貴1177 同埋其他當炒SECTOR 一致-50%, 其間指數回調20% 左右.

而樓方面, 太古城個買家輕輕一"TAT"都無左90萬, 沙一業主腳軟即沽15000/呎, 輸的程度不比股票少

有人話, 賣樓買債合埋眼, 其實真係比較危險, 對RISK ADVERSE的人, 債券可能係佢地的避風港, 可是功課真係要做足, 不能大安旨意

保險佬話齋, 你不理財, 財不理你
如何令到your money works for you? 




13 則留言:

  1. 快兄又講肺腑之言。辛苦了... 但聽得入腦者幾人呢...
    正如廿年前果個亞洲金融風暴中過招的國家,20年後,又出現了在這一趟的苦主國家名單中。人性使然,講都無用。
    都係果句:預返至少6個月收入的現金去頂吧。熊市:whatever can go wrong, go wrong. 而且,the worst is yet to come.

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    1. 絕對是: the worst is yet to come !

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    2. 三兄, 很容易地搶到沙發, 同貴BLOG 的難度可謂天壤之別!
      小子搶極都係第二, 遲D要狂F5先得!

      最緊要輸得起, 唔好亂借
      守得住先可以反攻!

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    3. //小子搶極都係第二, 遲D要狂F5先得!
      俾快兄知道左小弟搶沙發的秘技添... BTW, 綠洲茶客去左邊?

      //守得住先可以反攻!
      絕對正確。守得住,銀紙貶值的速度,持有穩健且具現金流資產長遠來說是安全的。最怕頂唔住爆了,無仇報.

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    4. 早幾日去左旅行輕鬆吓,由綠洲搬左去小島呢~
      另外搶沙發唔洗用劍既,亦唔洗用F5,用Web feeds 如RSS咪得囉~~
      我都係見到有新feed推過黎先倒杯茶去坐沙發的。(好似係)

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    5. 快兄,小弟成功請出艾力兄。
      艾力兄特意從杜拜的私人小島飛回來,真夠朋友!

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    6. 哈哈, 謝三兄請出綠洲茶客!
      可以艾力兄在馬代的小島上悠閒地放空

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  2. 我由去年9月開始重新整理自己的portfolio,加入大量fixed income / high dividend share / REITS - 時機其實不太對,因爲環球加息,債價跌,不過也因此讓我的portfolio非港股部分抗跌能力好強。我在内地債務違約問題前把直債cut loss賣了,net net大概無左3%,還頂得住,之後就轉曬去IB買美債,每支100k,50k甘買,好小心。我現在最怕樓跌,因爲我要買樓離開香港,小小的%都係一舊數,但現在二手樓市有價無市,比較難攪。

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    1. 要賣樓就要快, 因為好多買家都在觀望, 所以唔可以叫得太高價 !
      我就預可以在2019年下半年買到平樓 !

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    2. 我就等緊筍野, 如果有好野通知聲小弟!

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    3. 小子講笑啦, 我買的只是屋苑自住盤, 而小子買的是豪宅盤 :)

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  3. Lisa前輩,我預2020復甦...太樂觀嗎?我最遲2021年走,2022前把資產整合好上報 - 還有時間坐一坐,但不知道今次的週期會玩幾耐。老散

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    1. Martin Amstrong 都預測, 資金會流出債市而流入股市/金市等等, 所以自己睇路啦 !
      佢都預測個市2020年至2024年是向上走的 !

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