2017年9月29日 星期五

樓市實的的 (一) - 借貸力

今時今日上車實在係好困難, 難係難在幾個因素, 第一個係講「借貸力」

今天講緊你買二手樓的話, 基本上有3個LEVEL:

LEVEL 1. 細過400萬
可以按保借盡9成, 首期40萬, 厘印9萬, 佣金4萬; 唔連裝修共科53萬 (或更少)
供款每月以2.15%息口計,供30年, 月供13,577
但值得一提係用按保的話壓測係用DSR 40/50 計 (有別於一般50/60)
注: 40/50 係指以2.15% 按息下, 借款人總供款不得超出40%, 而加3%後以5.15%基準計, 不得超過借款人月入的50%.

即係話, 用按保買400萬樓借360萬, 係需要約13,577/40% = 33,942 月入; 或19,656/50% = 39,312月入
取其多者, 約為39,312 (即係40,000 月入)

問題來啦, 40,000 月入先借到360萬, 仲要推爆月供13,577;
供款佔家庭收入比  13,577/39,312 x 100% = 34.53%

呢樣野就非常吊跪, 政府成撚日講個供款比率係>50% 自然唔成立, 你行入銀行係無可能借到>50%; 拿當然你話借財仔借發展商二按就無得計. 但據小子所知, 班官係計埋CREDIT CARD同埋PLOAN 等等無抵押貸款而得出呢個% (因為財仔不受HKMA 管, 發展商都係, 所以佢地邊度有DATA?)

2. LEVEL 2: <600 萬
按保最多借80%, 即係你要準備20% (120萬首期 ), 18萬厘印, 6萬佣, 即係要144萬先可以上車
同樣地, 借盡480萬, 用50/60 計 2.15%/5.15% 要求 36,206/43,681 收入
30年供款, 月供18,103, 即係 41% 家庭收入

3. LEVEL 3: >1000萬
借5成, 500萬, 月供18,858, 月入要求37,716/54,602
30年供款, 月供18,858, 佔家庭入息34.5%

即係供款佔入息比率都係MAX 41%, 風險算唔算高? 各人自有演譯方法.
但小子覺得係偏低, 至少相比起97年人人都可以9成上會來講, 係健康好多

咁又有人會話, 咁我靠父幹去突破呢個象限, 得唔得先?

「上車靠父幹」成風 金管憂家庭風險增

得! 但係父親大人搞按揭都係受制於HKMA 的按揭措施所限, 如果佢將FULL PAY 樓加按 (好似班官咁講), 假設佢唔會借康X按揭 (年息12% - 26%) , 去BANK 借, 都係要睇入息. 如果你父親大人咁把炮又有40,000 人工 (假設60+), 咁佢就可以用間樓套到最多360萬 (即使佢間樓值2000萬都係只得360萬)

如果行歪路, 用ASSET PLAN MORTGAGE, 最多都係借30% , 如果你父親大人層樓值2000萬, 都係加到600萬出來咁大把 (即多240萬), 而且最賤係銀行多數唔肯做同埋息口係貴D
因為銀行來講, 60幾勾借幾百個, 佢係會認為風險高過後生仔借幾百個, 而REGARDLESS OF 條老野有間20M 野HOLD 住....幾咁吊跪呢?

由此而推論, 二手市場的新買家, 都係要求充足的子彈先可以買到心頭好
以小子為例, 間3房套連厘印用左我6M (間野10XX),未計裝修. 因為有埋裝修會叫天價, 只有殘裝才可以以高市價少少/貼市價出售

香港政府就係想推哂班比較無實力的買家去新樓借二按, 令到銀行風險減低. 大佬你四大地產商要賣樓吖嘛, 你借埋俾佢地就得
所以地產商係知道風險所在, 先會俾個特高息口去平衡番個DEFAULT RISK
好人好姐係唔會去買新樓借爆的, 只有實力不夠或者首期唔夠想夾硬一開二的貪心鬼先會監粗推
但係後者又可以將原有物業出售以冚番條數, 所以嘛...都係得番實力不夠者 (好似個兩個空中服務員) 咁, 搵5皮買8.7M

是以小子得出結論, 係二手樓買家實力比97年來講係強好多; 強係強在入息, 強係強在有足夠首期
而呢班人係香港職場入面都係中高層之輩, 分分鍾家庭月入不止此數, 防守力應該都幾高

再加上15% DSD 的罰則, 持有多於一間者, 再買番罰15%, 即係叫人唔好炒樓, 亦唔好沽樓, 所以呢批人係唔會沽, 並唔係善價而沽.


以下補充一些資料以作參考:




















金管局自2010年已7度收緊按揭成數:
1. 2015年2月27日
  • 價值700萬元以下自用住宅物業的最高按揭成數,由七成降至六成
  • 如借款人主要收入非來自香港,最高按揭成數由六成降至五成
  • 第二套自用住宅物業的供款與入息比率上限,由最高50%調低至40%
  • 各類非自用物業按揭貸款的供款與入息比率上限,由最高50%調低至40%
  • 按保計劃的最高按揭成數由90%下調至80%,有固定收入及還款能力較強的首置人士除外
2. 2013年2月22日
  • 加強壓力測試,由假設兩厘的升幅增加至三厘
  • 所有工商物業的按揭貸款的最高按揭成數,一律按目前適用的上限下調一成調整按保計劃準則,修訂為只有400萬元或以下住宅物業才可敘造最高九成按揭貸款政府同步推出增加從價印花稅(DSD)
3. 2012年9月14日
  • 貸款佔入息比率上限由五成下調至四成
  • 利率壓力測試下供款與入息比率上限由六成下調至五成
  • 主要收入非源自香港的按揭貸款,最高按揭成數由按適用的最高按揭成數下調一成改為下調兩成
  • 10月份再推出兩項新措施,提高額外印花稅(SSD)及適用期,引入買家印花稅(BSD)
4. 2011年6月10日
  • 1000萬元或以上物業,按揭上限降至五成
  • 主要收入並非源自香港,按揭成數上限再下調一成
5. 2010年11月19日
  • 1200萬元或以上物業,按揭上限降至五成
  • 非自住、公司名義持有的住宅物業、所有工商物業按揭成數上限劃一為五成政府同步引入三級制的「額外印花稅」(SSD)及全面禁止延遲繳交印花稅
6. 2010年8月13日
  • 1200萬元或以上物業,按揭上限降至六成
  • 非自住物業按揭成數降至六成
  • 貸款佔入息比率上限五成
7. 2009年10月23日
  • 2000萬元或以上物業,按揭上限由七成降至六成



2017年9月28日 星期四

風險胃納 與 生活方式

小子今年好興幸已經搞掂左HARD ASSET 的佈局, 入手左3房1套
小子係一個好怕搬屋同執野的人, 所以即使幾咁貴都好, 都要有自己的一個家, 釘口釘都要問業主真係會令人非常抓狂, 然而這是一個選擇, 一個生活方式

小子都有坐低諗過, 不如沽樓買收息股買債買REITS, 穏收5%-7% 唔係咩問題
如果狠D, 沽Q哂D樓, 玩租樓的話應該可以100% 財自, 玩債券老孖10%YTM, 5M 都收42K/月 (10M 都收84K/月, 基本上唔駛DO 啦), 當然我知道好多人開班教人玩呢D野, 不過先要睇下自己風險胃納, 唔好好似買新樓個兩條友咁, 話個AA 計錯數, 兩條友月入5皮野買8.7M 樓

全.城匯買家投訴經紀計錯按揭 落訂方知轉按需付逾百萬 進退兩難

其實無話啱錯, 輸得起便去馬囉...

但我真係覺得好危險, 雷曼契弟之後, AAA 評級都係ON9 (你睇下香港, 除左發左Ibond 之外係無外債, net cash, 評級AA+, 但係美國成屎忽都係數又係AA+? 中國D 銀行系統亂到不堪卻係A+?, 我真係成頭黑人問號.....)

注: 香港仲係行金本位, 憑票即付呢四隻字 (English: Promised to Pay) 價值萬金, 代表香港係有同等存量的黃金才可以發行鈔票 (小子認識皮毛, 唔係做HKMA, 如果有錯請指正..)

我係波叔的話我直頭會出信叉L住 S&P
標準普爾下調香港評級 AAA調至AA+

同埋小子日日對住D BANKER, 金融業根本係一個食人潭, 班RM 唔知自己SELL 咩, 為跑單而SELL, 而一定係唔會理客戶的生死; 本PROPSECTUS 愈來愈厚, 千9幾個RISK FACTOR 話有咩死人冧樓唔賠等等...我真係睇完, 明哂, 都仲有好多好多不可控/不能預知的因素.

而如果你再槓桿呢D投資物, 即係將不可控因素倍大再倍大...

當你咁"好彩"買左NOBLE GROUP (來寶) + KAISA (佳兆業) + BANCO POPULAR PERPS + TOYS RUS.......再槓一槓, 我估你真係出番來打工還錢都唔得掂....

但小子認為債券係比股票好, 因為債劵係借錢俾人做生意, 股票係你夾錢做生意, 要好相信個管理層先得, 與虎謀皮, 風險可不少
坐定定做債主又幾好,好過日日MON住個機睇報價

當然有D人會拎個RECOVERY RATE TABLE 來CHALLENGE, 話AA RATING 個回收率 (收回本金的%) 係若干, 咁我買A RATING 咪無死? 但係當一間公司仆街時, 多數評級都會下調, 而投資者就會面對債格因為評級下跌而導致的CREDIT SPREAD WIDENING (即係債格下跌)
到時投資者又會進退維谷, 沽又死, 唔沽又死的局面

有時唔係有無做足功課問題, KAISA 係所有當時有FUNDS 都有HOLD, 偏偏係小子話唔L鍾意 (唔知點解個人唔買花樣年, 佳兆業, 恆大, 旭暉同埋禹洲的債), 而對COGARD (迫貴園), COLI (中海外), COHO (中海宏洋), 同埋SINO-OCEAN (3377.HK) 有特別偏好

所以小子概括認為係機率問題多於做唔做功課.......而玩老孖買BONDS 真係有一定風險, 而一定一定不能忽略, 因為你倍大3倍買的時候, 如果TOTAL LOSS (唔一定DEFAULT 有RECOVERY RATE 架), 真係輸到甩褲....

2017年9月26日 星期二

美聯工商舖 - 商業地產市道大旺

【香港地產】美聯工商舖:首8個月工商舖買賣登記已超去年全年總和

今年以來,整體工商舖交投理想。根據美聯工商舖資料研究部綜合土地註冊處資料顯示,本年首8個月工商舖共錄得5,955宗買賣登記,不但較去年同期高出約98%,同時較去年全年總和的5,291宗,超出約12.5%;至於首8個月的買賣註冊金額約663.26億元,也逼近去年全年總和。本行預期,由於市場氣氛不俗,下半年的工商舖交投將升約8%至10%,全年可達約9,000宗的水平。

整體交投 近4年表現最佳
今年工商舖交投回勇,若以首8個月買賣註冊量計算,則為近4年同期,即新辣招蔓延至工商舖後的新高。然而,與2013年首8個月的8,469宗計算,本年至今的表現,仍然與當時有一段距離。
今年首8個月的交投之中,若以類別劃分,工廈的買賣最為活躍,期內錄得3,263宗,相當於整體約54.8%;至於商廈則次之,期內錄1,458宗,相當於24.5%,至於舖位佔比約20.7%。

工廈佔整體註冊量逾半
然而,若以金額劃分,則以商廈的佔比最重。今年首8個月,工商舖市場註冊金額錄約663.26億元,當中約40.1%或265.95億元來自商廈,佔比明顯較註冊宗數為多,因今年首8個月,商廈的成交大多為逾億元大手買賣。反觀,工廈成交宗數雖然較多,但由於涉及的物業,以細銀碼項目為主,因此註冊金額不及商廈,今年首8個月僅錄216.87億元,佔整體僅約32.7%。
另外,今年「大刁」交投也十分活躍,撇除逾10億元的內部轉讓交易,今年首8個月已經錄得65宗逾億元買賣註冊,涉資共約164.21億元,當中不乏逾十億元的大買賣,例如黃竹坑仁孚香港仔車廠全幢工廈,於上半年以15.6億元易主。

全年買賣料達9,000宗
美聯工商舖行政總裁黃漢成表示,近月股市及樓市氣氛暢旺,加上不少中資、基金及老牌財團等,紛出動掃貨,均有利刺激工商舖整體交投,帶動今年成交量從低位急速反彈。
他又指,早前踏入暑假傳統交投淡季,工商舖成交量有放緩跡象,預計相關情況將於本月份的註冊量之中反映出來(9月份註冊量主要反映8月份市況)。然而,黃漢成認為,隨著暑假剛結束,投資者紛紛回歸市場,料有利工商舖交投氣氛,相信稍後成交量會再度回升,展望下半年,工商舖交投量可較上半年升8%至10%,全年可達約9,000宗,即2013年新辣招後的新高水平。

全年買賣有9,000 宗, 即係仲有1/3 要去, 459 業績唔方會太差
美記係做工商好過做住宅
小子手持30萬股459, 如果有閒錢可以考慮加注
兩大重心係3839 同埋459, 希望可以年尾前有小小收成啦

香港優勢

在祖國的發展下, 香港既有的物流業優勢已經消失, 再加上服務業的服務又不太好, 或者有錢的同胞已經識去香榭麗舍買包包而唔去香港受你班SALE屎的閒氣, 旅遊業日漸息微係可以預期, 本土人士唔駛再FF 了.....(亲, 上海也有TMD 迪士尼)

在斷掉兩腳的情況下, 香港來緊十年應該主力發展
1) 地產及金融, 幫祖國藏富於外
2) 教育, 始終作為IVY LEAGUE的跳板, 北大清華肯定唔係好的選擇, 過到內地考試的考生都係學霸, 呢家在香港求其拎個DEGREE 可以報外國MASTER, 肯定令好多內地家長趨之若鶩
3) 醫療, 唔駛多講, 番到內地連"愛X健"換隻牙都無信心, 何況去醫院打滴?

希望香港政府唔好咁白痴自斷以上經脈, 否則真係玩L完

新移民租九龍城 為子鋪路入喇沙

【星島日報報道】名校林立的九龍塘區,向來是中產家長心儀首選,甚至不惜斥資舉家遷到四十六校網內,增加派位機會。在喇沙小學及瑪利諾修院學校(小學部),有家長昨晨陸續交表,希望首日申請以示誠意。有從湖北投資移民來港的家長坦言,兒子手握分數不多,若未能成功入讀便會轉投國際學校,即使學費接近一家人租屋開支亦感值得。

僅有15分姑且一試
小一自行分配學位首日接受申請,喇沙小學及瑪利諾修院學校(小學部)昨晨約二十名家長排隊輪候,兩校分別在九時及十時安排家長進校辦理報名,秩序井然。來自湖北,經投資移民來港的家長胡先生,偕妻子為獨子交表,他坦言兒子因屬適齡兒童及首名出生子女,只有十五分,「試一試吧,機會肯定不大」。他看重喇沙小學的英語與藝術培養,網上排名不俗,今年初舉家從湖北遷至本港,以月租兩萬多元租住九龍城四十六校網內的單位,部署升學。

若自行與派位均未如理想,胡先生不排除會報讀國際學校,他心儀今年開校的史丹福美國國際學校,該校每年學費十六萬五千多元,他笑言該校學費水平,直逼一家人每月的租屋開支,「這不便宜呀,但孩子讀好一點學校,也肯定值得」。
至於排頭位的雙非家長陳太,未到七時已到達校門為幼子排隊,她長子在深圳就讀,幼子僅有適齡兒童的十分,成功入讀機會相當低,「只能早點來到交表,給學校好印象」。她指幼子以往是跨境在上水就讀幼稚園,為了幼子在港發展,一家人上月從深圳遷到大角嘴奧海城附近,月租兩萬多元,而她亦辭去內地證券工作,暫時辭工照顧兒子,「搵到小學就會搵工」。

藍田搬龍城 一博瑪利諾
從事物流業的本港家長張先生,昨晨為幼女交表報讀瑪利諾修院學校(小學部),長女現時在私立的培道小學就讀小三,他宣言只是「博一博」,一家人從藍田搬到九龍城,以近五百多萬元置業,「搬屋當然考慮到幼女的校網」。他坦言會先以「三個第一」作策略,在自行收生、統一派位甲乙部均報讀該校,若不成功便安排與長女同校,「這幾年香港的小朋友(學額)競爭很厲害,只能博個機會而已」。他亦為幼女安排繪畫、跆拳道及溜冰等興趣班,每月花費四至五千元。



2017 3Q季檢

股票方面:

財自小子股票倉一覽

股票                                           股數                                 

九龍建業 (34)                           20,000                        
吉利汽車 (175)                         40,000                            
中石油     (857)                         20,000                              
兗州煤業 (1171)                       54,000
正大企業 (3839)                     338,000
香港電視 (1137)                     100,000
美聯工商舖 (459)                   300,000

全數減持吉利汽車(@16.5), 因為小子已賺幅5倍, 算數了, 所謂的VALUATION 都唔識計

全數減持香港電視 (@3.0), 王維基電視方面未有著落, 仲要自己改變持股比例, 先行落車, 如果咁好彩低過2.0 又有閒錢就買番

全數減持兗煤 (@7.35), 套回40萬

股票                                           股數                                 

九龍建業 (34)                           20,000                        
吉利汽車 (175)                                  0                      
中石油     (857)                         20,000                              
兗州煤業 (1171)                                0
正大企業 (3839)                     338,000
香港電視 (1137)                                0
美聯工商舖 (459)                   300,000


其他持倉維持, 大時代還未到, 呢年都係集中炒大價股, 700, 2018, 2382 等等, 炒死一兩個SECTOR, 等待中小價股都飛升時, 小子會盡沽手中持股

香港電視呢注輸80000, 無咩所謂, 要沽的就要沽, 炒股最緊要有執行力

樓宇方面:

已意外地再度入手一間, 比預期進度快. 本身小子打算2019/2020 先會再買樓, 但係小小子的玩具愈來愈多, 玩樂的空間又唔夠, 為父為口奔馳, 雖然已盡力陪伴小兒, 但係時間有限. 先行提供一個好的環境俾佢, 再要快馬加鞭, 始終小朋友的長大係唔會因為你忙而停低, 要加油加快做到財自退休去





2017年9月25日 星期一

2017年最後一撃

小子終於係上星期三買左本人的第一間三房一套

港島藍籌屋苑, 成交價僅僅高於1,000萬

小子會做40% - 50%按揭, 剛好用了手頭上的CASH, 又來節食縮食MODE了

本來有3間揀的, 一間3.5房1300萬, 另一間3房1100萬, 最尾小子揀左間10XX 萬, 再同業主傾到牙血都出埋, 最尾減多30萬成交, 呎價15XXX

來緊呢3年小子都唔會再買住宅物業, 因為15% DSD 關係.
所以重資產的大局已定, 2018年做REVIEW 時再決定加添何種資產
終於都買左了









育兒

小小子啱啱過左6個月生日, 呢幾個月小子係好開心, 但係對小小子的期望, 我可以用蘇軾的
《洗兒》表達, 此乃小子公公最愛的詩詞:


《洗兒》 蘇軾

人皆養子望聰明。我被聰明誤一生。

惟愿孩兒愚且魯,無災無難到公卿。


小子只想快D搵夠退休, 可以陪住佢成長, 暑假帶佢去旅行認識世界, 同埋老來唔好成為佢地財政上的負擔. 上一代賺錢咁易都淨唔到俾小子,小子前車必鑑, 三省吾身

小子知道係好難, 但我會嘗試去做到呢個LEVEL

 

2017年9月20日 星期三

談債券: TOYS R'US - FITCH 調低至垃圾級別

買債真係要好小心好小心, 買之前一定要睇PROSPECTUS.

市場先生很公平, 做足功課者未必贏錢, 但無做功課者99% 都輸

有幾多人買到3333/1918 而贏到10倍而齋靠運呢? 

先求知, 再投資. 買股買債都要先睇哂所有年報/文件, 理解了解清楚先落手

 仲要新上隻眾安, 輸緊錢都爆老孖去抽係咩玩法???

 一陣好似中芯又或者前一日由656拆出來上市個隻SISRAM MED (1696) 咁, 真係喊都無謂

 

Fitch Downgrades Toys 'R' Us' IDR to 'D'

Fitch Ratings-New York-19 September 2017: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) for Toys 'R' Us, Inc. (Toys, or the Holdco) to 'D' from 'CC' following the announcement that the company and certain of its U.S. subsidiaries and its Canadian subsidiary have filed for Chapter 11. Fitch has downgraded Toys 'R' Us - Delaware, Inc., and TRU Taj LLC, to 'D' and affirmed the 'CC' rating on Toys 'R' Us Property Co. I, LLC (which was not part of the bankruptcy filing). Of the $5.27 billion in total debt that was outstanding on the petition date (including $1.025 billion borrowings on its $1.85 billion domestic ABL) for the consolidated company, Fitch expects that $2.85 billion of debt will be impacted by the bankruptcy. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of the release.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

DIP Facilities: The company has received a commitment of $3,125 million in debtor-in-possession financing from various lenders, including a J.P. Morgan led bank syndicate and certain of the company's existing lenders, subject to court approval. Proceeds will be used to support ongoing operations during the bankruptcy process. The $3,125 million (with a 16-month maturity) in financing includes the following tranches:

(1) a $2.3 billion ABL/FILO DIP Facility at Toys 'R' Us - Delaware, Inc., consisting of a senior secured revolving credit facility and letters of credit in the aggregate amount of $1,850 million and a secured "first in last out" term loan in the aggregate amount of $450 million, funded by a syndicate of various lenders, including certain of the Prepetition ABL Lenders, with JPMorgan acting as ABL/FILO DIP Agent. This will be used to repay the Prepetition ABL/FILO Facility borrowings in full and provide an incremental $170 million of liquidity.

(2) $450 million Term DIP Facility at Toys 'R' Us - Delaware, Inc. funded by an ad hoc group of Prepetition Term Loan B-4 Lenders holding over 50 percent of the outstanding principal amount of Delaware Loans who were willing to consensually prime their pre-petition liens. This will be used for general corporate purposes, including the administration of these Chapter 11 cases.

(3) $375 million Taj DIP Incremental Notes to be provided by an ad hoc group of Taj Noteholders who were willing to consensually prime their own liens. The incremental notes will be used to pay interest on the Prepetition Taj Notes, and DIP fees, as well as to provide liquidity to support the Debtors' international operations. The group of Taj Noteholders also agreed to waive certain defaults under the Prepetition Taj Notes and to forbear from exercising rights and remedies pursuant to a default against the Debtors (the Taj Waiver).

DERIVATION SUMMARY

The bankruptcy comes on the heels of Toys facing a multi-decade onslaught of competition from discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and Target Corporation, and more recently, online-only players such as Amazon.com, Inc., leading to market share losses. Fundamental characteristics of the toy industry, including its seasonality, hit-driven nature, and low importance of sales assistance and inviting in-store experience, continue to make it attractive for the discount and online channels to take share. The competitive and secular headwinds faced by the company have led to meaningful top-line and EBITDA declines, and this combined with a highly leveraged balance sheet as a result of its 2005 LBO rendered the current capital structure unsustainable.

Other single category retailers such as Best Buy (BBB-/Stable Outlook), The Gap (BB+/Stable Outlook) and Kroger (BBB/Stable Outlook) have also faced secular pressures but have been able to largely stem declines as a result of their ability to invest in their businesses due to lower leverage profiles and strong cash flow generation. Difference in category fundamentals has also prevented these retailers from experiencing the level of market share erosion to discount/online channels as seen with the toy category. Both Toys and Sears Holding Corporation (CC) have been facing significant market share erosion, although Sears' has been funding its ongoing liquidity needs over the last few years with asset sales and additional secured debt given negative EBITDA (since 2012) and material fixed obligations.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Recovery Analysis and Considerations
For issuers with IDRs at 'B+' and below, Fitch performs a recovery analysis for each class of obligations. Issue ratings are derived from the IDR and the relevant Recovery Rating (RR) and notching based on expected recoveries in a going concern and liquidation reorganization scenario for each of the company's note and loan issues. Toys' debt is at three types of entities: operating companies (OpCo); property companies (PropCos); and HoldCos, with a structure summary as follows:

Toys 'R' Us, Inc. (HoldCo)
(I) Toys 'R' Us-Delaware, Inc. (Toys-Delaware) is a subsidiary of HoldCo.
(a) Toys 'R' Us Canada (Toys-Canada) is a subsidiary of Toys-Delaware.
(II) TRU Taj LLC, an indirectly owned subsidiary of Holdco.
(a) Toys 'R' Us Property Co. I, LLC (PropCo I) is a subsidiary of TRU Taj.

OpCo Debt
Fitch takes the higher of liquidation value or enterprise value (EV, based on 5.0x-6.0x range of multiple applied to going concern EBITDA) at the OpCo levels: Toys-Delaware and Toys-Canada and the international entities that provide a stock pledge to the debt at TRU Taj. The 5.0x-6.0x range is consistent with the 5.4x median multiple for retail going concern reorganizations but at the low end of the 12-year retail market multiples of 5x to 11x, and below 7x to 12x for retail transaction multiples. The stressed EV is reduced by 10% for assumed administrative claims.

Toys-Delaware
At the Toys-Delaware level, recovery on the various debt tranches is based on liquidation value of domestic assets rather than a going concern enterprise value. To derive a going concern enterprise value of $1.5 billion, Fitch assumes a going concern EBITDA of $310 million valued at a 5x multiple. This assumes (i) ongoing domestic EBITDA of $230 million based on revenue of $5 billion (an approximately 35% discount to current Toys-Delaware revenues (ex. Canada) of $7.1 billion) operating at a 5% EBITDA margin and (ii) $80 million of IP royalty fees that Toys charges its international businesses and third parties.

In deriving a liquidation value of domestic assets of $1.9 billion at Toys Delaware, Fitch considered the liquidation value of domestic inventory and receivables assumed at seasonal peak, at the end of the third quarter, and applied typical advance rates of 75% and 80%, respectively, and estimated value for Toys' IP assets, which are held at Geoffrey, LLC as a wholly owned subsidiary of Toys-Delaware.
The debtors have proposed a $2.3 billion ABL/FILO DIP Facility at Toys 'R' Us - Delaware, Inc., consisting of a senior secured revolving credit facility and letters of credit in the aggregate amount of $1,850 million (which contains a $300 million Canadian sub-facility) and a secured "first in last out" term loan in the aggregate amount of $450 million, which will be used to replace the Prepetition ABL/FILO Facility in full and provide an incremental $170 million of liquidity.

The $1.85 billion revolver (DIP and pre-petition) is secured by a first lien on inventory and receivables of Toys-Delaware. Fitch assumes $1.3 billion, or approximately 70%, of the facility commitment is drawn under the revolver. The $300 million sub-facility is more than adequately covered by the EV of $550 million calculated by applying a 5x multiple based on 2016 EBITDA at the Canadian subsidiary and the $1.55 billion U.S facility is more than adequately covered by domestic inventory. The residual value of approximately $285 million from Canada is applied toward the FILO term loan and B-4 term loan.

The New DIP FILO term loan ($450 million which is expected to replace the existing $280 million) is secured by the same collateral as the $1.85 billion ABL facility and ranks second in repayment priority relative to the ABL. The FILO tranche is governed by the residual borrowing base within the ABL facility and benefits from a lien against 15% of the estimated value of real estate at Toys-Canada. This is also fully recovered.

The ratings on the existing ABL and FILO facility is rated 'CCC/RR1' based on outstanding recovery prospects (91% to 100%). Fitch will withdraw the ratings once the DIP financing is ordered by the judge and the proceeds are used to repay the pre-petition ABL and FILO borrowings in full.

The $1 billion B-4 term loan and the $186 million of B-2 and B-3 term loans have a first lien on all present and future IP, trademarks, copyrights, patents, websites and other intangible assets, and a second lien on the ABL collateral. The B-4 term loan also benefits from an unsecured guaranty by the indirect parent of PropCo I and is secured by a first-priority pledge on two-thirds of the Canadian subsidiary stock. In addition, these term loans will also benefit from the liquidation value for plant, property and equipment. At the end of 2016, Toys operated 879 domestic stores of which 318 units are held at Propco I and 123 units are held at Propco II leaving 438 units at Toys Delaware. The mix of leased versus owned (included ground leases) is unclear, although on Oct. 24, 2016, Toys filed an 8K disclosing that 103 Toys-Delaware properties (88 ground leased locations where Toys owns the building and 15 owned locations) were appraised by Cushman and Wakefield at $568 million. Fitch has applied a dark store valuation of $370 million or 65% of the appraised value. This is consistent with the market and dark store valuations provided for assets under PropCo I and PropCo II over the past few years.

Fitch has assumed that the new $450 million Term DIP Facility at Toys 'R' Us - Delaware, Inc..will have super priority claims over the current B-4 and B-2/B-3 term loan lenders. Applying the waterfall of the applicable assets to the new and existing term loans results in outstanding recovery for the new Term DIP facility, superior recovery prospects (71% to 90%) for the B-4 term loans which are rated 'CCC-/RR2' and average recovery prospects (31% to 50%) for the B-2/B-3 term loans which are rated 'C/RR4'. The $22 million 8.75% debentures due Sept. 1, 2021 have poor recovery prospects (0% to 10%) and are therefore rated 'C/RR6'.

Valuation of IP
Toys' IP assets held at Geoffrey, LLC are the first lien collateral backing the senior secured term loans issued at Toys-Delaware. The annual license fees paid by HoldCo's international subsidiaries were $64 million as of Jan. 28, 2017, a decline from $102 million in 2012. In addition, Toys generated $16 million in license fees from third parties for a total of $80 million in licensing fees in 2016.
In terms of valuing the IP, Fitch applied a 4.0x to 5.0x multiple to these royalty streams from Toys' international subsidiaries (excluding Canada) and third parties to arrive at a value of $350 million. While the multiple paid could potentially be better, resulting in a higher IP valuation, there could also be further downward pressure on the royalty stream itself given weakness in its international businesses.

PropCo Debt
At the PropCo levels (PropCo I and other international PropCos) LTM net operating income (NOI) is stressed at 20%.

PropCo I is set up as bankruptcy-remote entity with a 20-year master lease through 2029 covering all the properties within the entities, which requires Toys-Delaware to pay all costs and expenses related to leasing these properties from these two entities. The ratings on the PropCo debt reflect a distressed capitalization rate of 12% applied to the stressed NOI of the properties to determine a going-concern valuation. The stressed rates reflect downtime and capital costs that would need to be incurred to re-tenant the space. The 12% capitalization rate reflects the exposure to a single tenant versus a more diversified portfolio. As a reference the Fitch CMBS Large Loan Rating Criteria typically uses default cap rates of 8.5% to 11.25%.

Applying these assumptions to the $866 million senior unsecured term loan facility at PropCo I results in outstanding recovery prospects (91% to 100%) and the facility is therefore rated 'CCC+/RR1'. The PropCo I unsecured term loan facility benefits from a negative pledge on all PropCo I real estate assets, which includes around 320 properties (318 stores, three distribution centers and headquarters).

As described above, the residual value of approximately $334 million after fully recovering the $866 million term loan at PropCo I is applied toward the Toys-Delaware B-4 term loan via an unsecured guaranty by the indirect parent of PropCo I.

TRU Taj LLC Debt
The $583 million notes due 2021 are secured by a stock pledge in certain international subsidiaries, including guarantors of the European ABL. $375 million in Taj DIP Incremental Notes will be provided by an ad hoc group of Taj Noteholders who consented to prime the pre-petition liens of the Taj Notes.
The EBITDA attributed to TRU Taj was $173 million in 2016, calculated on a covenant basis. Fitch applied a 5.0x multiple to each entity's EBITDA, subtracted out entity-level debt, which resulted in a remaining value of approximately $600 million. Fitch first applied this towards the $375 million Taj DIP Incremental Notes and the remaining value against the $583 million notes. This resulted in average recovery (31% to 50%) for the existing notes and the notes are therefore rated 'C/RR4'.


Toys 'R' Us, Inc. - HoldCo Debt
The $208.3 million 7.375% unsecured notes due Oct. 15, 2018 (and the $741 million senior notes due to Toys-Delaware that are considered pari passu with the publicly traded HoldCo notes) have poor recovery prospects (0% to 10%) because there is no residual value flowing in from the wholly owned subsidiaries. Therefore, they are rated 'C/RR6'

LIQUIDITY

Toys held $301 million of cash ($35 million at Toys 'R' Us - Delaware, Inc.) and $252 million of availability under its various revolvers as of April 29, 2017, including $176 million available under its domestic $1.85 billion facility.

FULL LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

Fitch has taken the following rating actions:

Toys 'R' Us, Inc.
--Long -Term IDR downgraded to 'D' from 'CC';
--Senior unsecured notes affirmed at 'C/RR6'.

Toys 'R' Us - Delaware, Inc.
--Long-Term IDR downgraded to 'D' from 'CC';
--Secured revolver downgraded to 'CCC/RR1' from 'CCC+/RR1';
--Secured FILO term loan downgraded to 'CCC/RR1' from 'CCC+/RR1';
--Secured B-4 term loan downgraded to 'CCC-/RR2' from 'CCC/RR2';
--Secured B-2 and B-3 term loans downgraded to 'C/RR4' from 'CC/RR4';
--Senior unsecured notes affirmed at 'C/RR6'.

TRU Taj LLC
--Long-Term IDR downgraded to 'D' from 'CC';
--Senior secured notes downgraded to 'C/RR4' from 'CC/RR4'.

Toys 'R' Us Property Co. I, LLC
--Long-Term IDR affirmed at 'CC';
--Senior unsecured term Loan facility affirmed at 'CCC+/RR1'.

租金貴唔貴? 廢青廢唔廢?

其實香港租金算唔算貴呢? 一個做文職收入20,000, 兩公婆40,000, 多數租2房單位約14-17K 租金, 其實佢地話貴, 究竟係唔係好貴呢?

租金為入息25% 料千戶受惠 「共享房屋」起動 34單位年底入伙

共享房屋起動 

 香港政府所推出的共享房屋起動, 都要求租金佔入息25%, 即係樓上兩公婆的收入(40K X 25%) = 10,000 + 啦, 其實住好少少,比起基層人士住好咁多, 俾多3幾千又係唔係好過份呢?

如果要個市跌到5000租嘉湖山莊, 咁即係人工又係要相應下調? 當時好有人無工做, 減人工比比皆是, 觀乎全局, 當時都係賤物鬥窮人, 對比起窮人來講, 其實都係好辛苦, 萬一有咩事俾人炒左仲大獲, 連租都交唔起

呢家啲野無錯係貴過以前, 但係大家都搵到同埋洗到, 只係有時有D人無投資/買錯野, 跑輸別人

好似小子同同事講1211 咁, 我都無買到. 白白眼見無左20萬...WTF

經濟好, 企業好, 人工加同埋大環境OK先促進投資/消費活動, 先有機會俾人向上流, 故此某些亂港份子真係唔好搞亂個場, 有時某D人講: 唔鍾意可以離開, 可能又錯唔哂, 不過係涼薄左少少

其實你有錢去邊受歡迎, 係自己地頭窮到仆街都係俾人欺負, 此乃全球通用


2017年9月19日 星期二

談借貸

係呢家低息時代, 人人都以借貸為樂. 特別係買債基/債券的投資者, 因為借貸成本特平而大借特借, 套利交易.

打個比方, 一隻BBB- 投資級別的債券, 5年期, YTM 3%. 銀行提供70% LTV, 即係可以槓大3倍來買, LEVERAGED YTM = 3X3 - 2% (funding costs) = 7%

放低100萬, 每年7% 實在係好可觀.

有些投資者更過份係投資NON IG 的債, 仲要用槓桿, 比如TOYS R US公司債, YTM 5%, 槓佢1倍都收8%, 開開心心收息去也.

但係大家又有無諗過當中的風險呢?

利申一下, 小子睇哂佢地個3隻BONDS 的PROSPECTUS, 發現只有TOYS RUS PROP 個隻係有公司的物業抵押, 所以JPM 推我買個時我係以捉賊的心態觀之

特此一提, 投行班賊仔根本係吸客血以自肥的生物, 各位投資者小心, 通常免費的建議係最L貴的

如果當天小子無幫公司睇清楚呢3疊野, 可能小子已經中左招了, 用埋槓桿死得仲快, 因為輸係輸2份, 分分鍾收埋收埋D息唔夠冚不特止仲要嘔凸. 推而廣之, 雷曼爆煲個下個個都以為無事, 點知WRITE OFF 的時候係邊個投資者唔好彩呢?
 
大家又可以參考BANCO POPULAR 最近WRITE OFF COCO 事件, 個個都以為銀行係百業之母一定無死的時候, 佢可以一夜之間賣盤, 並且WRITE OFF COCO, 試問有幾多人買的時候會知佢地當中風險?

Bondholders launch legal action over Banco Popular rescue 

https://www.ft.com/content/a15aa7a9-937a-3f12-9bff-057f2ce45501

2017: SRB puts Banco Popular under resolution process. All existing stocks and additional Tier 1 instruments are written down. Tier 2 instruments are converted into stocks and then sold to Banco Santander S.A. for EUR 1[6].

當大家狂借的時候, 對低息有永續的預期時便要開始減貸, 以免到時想減都減唔到, 到投資物價錢大跌的時候, D人就係監生俾逃生門夾死. 只有守到尾的投資者先有資格享受成功的果實


2017年9月18日 星期一

老油條

小子今日同朋友的CONNECTION 再食飯傾一傾一個CAREER OFFER

朋友話個富二代有間1469 牌的公司想搵個CORP FIN RO 去幫佢搞掂檔野然後可能做M&A 上市.

個SALARY PACKAGE 係一定比呢間有INCREMENT, 另加INCENTIVE, 如果幫佢搵到生意又會加佣云云.

記得2年前有間PRE IPO 公司搵我做CFO, 有埋1M SHARE OPTIONS 但我REJECT 左, 個時揼春揼左一排, 後尾上市後股票約值3M 左右.

今時今日,小小子出左世, 唔知點解我對營營役役OT非常之抗拒. 或者咁講, 搵錢有千萬種方法, 係唔係需要一定出賣自己時間呢? 呢家小子對於飛來飛去這種生活實在好厭惡, 唔知點解個時係EDPK會肯OT 個下真心ON9 (會計界乃奴隸集中營)

小子呢家已經無咩心機去想打拼番咩一番事業, 我只知道呢家我想陪家人多於其他, 讀埋個濕鳩MASTER 之後坐個CFO 位做下刁睇下數但又唔係好辛苦咁過下日晨算數.

學下70兄話齋計下身家, 其實過多幾年唔做, 慳慳地駛又得唔得呢? 多謝70兄的一言驚醒, 小子今日開始就放慢腳步, 錢係搵唔哂的, 夠, 便可以

 或者我都學下70兄咁寫下"我幾時唔駛撈系列", 哈哈


2017年9月14日 星期四

狹路相逢勇者勝

相信大家都未必對呢段歷史認知得好深

https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/history/qy43qob.html

閼與之戰
時間地點:公元前269年,閼與
交戰雙方:秦國、戰國
雙方主將:胡陽(秦)、趙奢(趙)
此戰結果:秦軍十萬,全軍覆沒,以致秦國多年未敢攻伐趙國。
閼與之戰,趙奢隱蔽作戰企圖,麻痹敵人,促其驕傲輕敵,爾後出其不意,突然發動攻擊,以及搶先佔領要地,使己方處於有利地位的作戰指導,是此戰獲勝的主要原因。


原文網址:https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/history/qy43qob.html
港珠澳大橋之應用

面對著日益加劇的競爭及香港的優勢已漸漸由全球化而蕩然無存, 狹路相逢勇者勝似乎係當下香港下一代唯一可以做

資產困局方面: 大陸人無限量黑錢湧入香港, 利用香港作為資產儲存中心, 資產價格穏定地上升係可以預期. 資本市場方面, 殼價有價有市, 大陸人買左呢部提款機供股合股又得, 資產注入又得, 係整定係未來10-20年為首選的資產

其次因為資產洗白白的活動, 香港樓價自有其剛性需求, 日益上漲的價格係可以預期, 再加上DSD BSD SSD 等辣招凍結香港本土人士的購買力 (小子注: 係本土, 因為港人係好窮好窮, 儲到天昏地老都未儲到15% DSD 厘印, 而大陸大款卻一槍俾埋30% BSD/DSD 都面不改容)

人才困局方面: 大學生質素持續低下, 淪為培育政治人才基地, 而不是求知並裝備自己的試練場. 政府責無旁貸, 因為香港從前引之自豪的轉口港及中間人角色, 已經因時代巨輪轉動下日漸息微
1980年代, 係製造業的好時間, 人工成本因為大量勞動力由中國湧入而令香港成為一個製造業的中心.
及至1990, 2000 年發展出的金融, 購物旅游等等行業的優勢, 已經因為中國改革開放, 全球化等因素, 只淨下金融一環係一支獨秀
如今香港政府搞咩專才計劃, 不斷引入大陸專才去取代香港專才, 香港銀行業發展已經差唔多到尾聲, 港青因為看不見前路而將自身的能量與不滿投放係反政府運動當中. 政府不能倒果為因, 實在萬惡不赦

如果此局不能於將來逆轉, 人才只會虛耗, 大陸人才代替香港只係時間問題

發展困局方面: 呢家大家都係只識炒炒賣賣, 自不待言. 當其他地區大力發展創科, 香港班官連FACEBOOK都唔曉上......

來緊90/00 呢一代, 香港社會實在對您們有所虧欠, 因為50-70年代 (小子80後, 不評論80+), 已經由經濟, 房地產中賺哂你地成世的錢. 下一代可以做到的係好少, 只能用狹路相逢勇者勝的必死心態去應付香港的困局. 多點出外見識, 放開胸襟, 闖出自己的一片天.
不要無謂地好似游小姐咁用自我身軀去驗證, 實在ON9之至

政治利申: 小子係王維基港島區助選團之一名小薯
閼與之戰
時間地點:公元前269年,閼與
交戰雙方:秦國、戰國
雙方主將:胡陽(秦)、趙奢(趙)
此戰結果:秦軍十萬,全軍覆沒,以致秦國多年未敢攻伐趙國。
閼與之戰,趙奢隱蔽作戰企圖,麻痹敵人,促其驕傲輕敵,爾後出其不意,突然發動攻擊,以及搶先佔領要地,使己方處於有利地位的作戰指導,是此戰獲勝的主要原因。


原文網址:https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/history/qy43qob.html
閼與之戰
時間地點:公元前269年,閼與
交戰雙方:秦國、戰國
雙方主將:胡陽(秦)、趙奢(趙)
此戰結果:秦軍十萬,全軍覆沒,以致秦國多年未敢攻伐趙國。
閼與之戰,趙奢隱蔽作戰企圖,麻痹敵人,促其驕傲輕敵,爾後出其不意,突然發動攻擊,以及搶先佔領要地,使己方處於有利地位的作戰指導,是此戰獲勝的主要原因。


原文網址:https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/history/qy43qob.html
閼與之戰
時間地點:公元前269年,閼與
交戰雙方:秦國、戰國
雙方主將:胡陽(秦)、趙奢(趙)
此戰結果:秦軍十萬,全軍覆沒,以致秦國多年未敢攻伐趙國。
閼與之戰,趙奢隱蔽作戰企圖,麻痹敵人,促其驕傲輕敵,爾後出其不意,突然發動攻擊,以及搶先佔領要地,使己方處於有利地位的作戰指導,是此戰獲勝的主要原因。


原文網址:https://kknews.cc/zh-hk/history/qy43qob.html

2017年9月13日 星期三

無知是一種罪

小子星期一太攰請左假, 但臨時小子個媽咪催我幫佢家姐 (即係姨媽), 叫我相熟個裝修師父同佢睇全屋大裝修

其實呢, 前前後後呢3年, 同一單野已經麻煩左師父3次, 仲要未MAKE 到DECISION

好彩小子識得冧番呀師父,如果唔係收租樓裝修搵第二個搞就真係PK.....

好啦, 又上左去, 拎住份圖紙 (裝修佬出圖紙都算OK PRO掛), 全程再WALK一下, 房間櫃點改, 床點做, 係邊度買/做....廚厠浴缸變企缸, 爐頭FUSE SINK盤大執位等等.....玩左成個鍾

夜晚小子個媽咪打來話姨媽話個師父HEA講! 吖...當初你UP 哂頭話好, OK , 無問題. 你呢家一句咁車埋來???

3年前一早已叫過佢唔好多事, 我都唔知佢係要FACE 定咩, 又攬上身, 又叫我搞.

所以做老人家真係唔好不自量力搞咁多野, 煩到小子PK, 最終都係煩到D後生.

今朝同姨媽要由頭解釋用師父同埋DESIGNER FIRM 的分別, 係在於沒有專人去ENTERTAIN 一D 新手.
如果你又要平又要唔識又要呀支呀左, 真係過主.

BTW, 小子媽咪係咁多個親人之中第二窮. 年輕時受盡佢地的侮辱及恥笑, 笑小子爸爸唔爭氣, 家貧不能移民, 自己家人卻在97前走得切云云
今天小子總算爭氣, 為家人挽回一些面子, 但係你地有咩事就搵我呀媽, 出左事就惡言相向等等壞習慣固然無變, 講左百鳩幾次, 同枱食飯, 各自修行, 到2012年出事各人反面無情再HUR爆你1都仲係要做炸両, 真係吹Q漲, 仲係睇唔清一D人的真面目

小子一向都係: 以德報德, 以直報怨, 你叫我仆心仆命去幫呢D無謂人, SORRY
即係咁你幾千萬身家, 跌D俾DESIGNER 做啦 (100萬VS 40萬小子師父). 人地個60萬係用來SERVE 你呢D 無知婦孺架嘛.....唔好搞我呢D窮人啦

我又無錢收, 更不會叫人打大條數呃自己人, 做人為結善緣, 你以惡相向仲要我以善相報, SORRY我非聖人, 做不到

注: 小子媽媽的家人都入左加拿大籍, 今次番來香港, 順便又"潤"小子身為香港人的無奈, 而佢地有PASSPORT可以避走他國食花生云云....小子輕輕問下可唔可以移民, 即俾人取笑無得用 "親人團聚" 呢個OPTION.

OK, 第一, 我無諗過走住, 第二, 我都估你地無咁好死, 第三, 小子表弟係做加國地產AA, 費事佢跟手SELL我買個D鄉郊地皮發展計劃 (佢地仲係做緊呃大陸佬條水), 食飯時手頭已有一疊此等文件. and most of all, 其實小子要移民係可以做到, 只不過無必要而已, 亦不必要同佢地鬥氣認叻. CRITERIA 去關景鴻睇下便知, crystal clear.

反而我就睇到好多加國人U GRAD 番來搵食, 幾年前細細咁問佢地, 佢地話其實搵工好難, 有歧視, 同埋搵得萬幾二萬蚊, 仲要未抽稅, 每日用錢仲要俾消費稅等等....香港求其做份HEA工都好過加國云云

加拿大聯邦技術移民要求
得唔得其實一覽無遺


2017年9月8日 星期五

有一種辛苦叫會計師

令到小子想起收到EDPK OFFER LETTER 後, 同做生意的舅父報喜
佢話: 生做行街, 死做掌櫃

回想番起, 佢實係錯唔到幾多......

睇番條片, 百般滋味在心頭

小子覺得呀林生真係好涼薄, 比教大條友恭喜人地死左個仔仲涼薄
咩叫做你唔辛苦就唔可以買到個層樓? 買唔到個架車?
莫非只係得做你間FIRM仔的路可以買到樓?
唔好玩啦.......



浪費土地資源 - 首置上車盤

從來土地都係寶貴而有限的資源, 一塊臨海的土地, 如果政府起左公屋, 就等於將庫房應收的幾百億補貼左俾公屋居民.

土地有價, 靚地應該賣左佢做私樓, 而庫房收回的錢, 可以加以善用, 係天水圍, 洪水橋等比較鄉郊地方, 修橋補路, 起一D只租不賣的公屋, 長遠又可以令到市民安居樂業, 更可以穏定社會. 久而久之, 政府便有一個公屋庫, 到時呢D就公屋可以限一D年青人租10年, 免費又好, 低價又好, 助佢地畢業頭10-15年休養生息, 儲錢追夢也好, 儲錢買樓也罷. 到時政府可以大大聲話無欠過市民, 因為新公屋庫已經助了年青人15年, D後生仔再嘈再怨都無GROUNDS

但係賣散D資助房屋真係好大獲, 既難管理, 又收錢收得少, 抽到個D等於發左達, 抽唔到個D眼紅又鬧政府, 夾心中產俾得稅最多但補貼別人更加氣難下

不患寡而患不均, 起D公屋以市值2折租俾每一個年青人, 才是穏定香港問題的治本良方
動不動打私樓買家根本無意思, 打死佢地, 老來無錢又係靠政府
維持高地價及應有地價, 但係同時將所得地益以長遠福利分配給年青人/老年人才是正道.

賣地同DSD 錢係可以50% 放係全民退保基金, HKMA 管理; 另50% 用來收番鄉郊土地 (立法會財委會審議並公開估值報告), 慢慢用市民的錢買番地產商的地/市區賠償做新地, 10 年過後, 政府便有底氣向地產商說不

或者可以重推以往的LETTER B收回地產商的鄉郊土地, 俾佢地用LETTER B 去換番市區商業地 (當然用大量的LETTER B才可以換到), 咁的話更加快收番農地發展, 免補價狂起公屋俾新年青人, 就算每日有150都唔駛驚

當市民都安居樂業之後, 其實推咩政策都比較易, 民心歸向, 激進派始終係少數. 對於穏定香港, 房屋係不可不解決的問題

 林鄭﹕「首置上車盤」助年輕家庭

【明報專訊】行政長官林鄭月娥會下月發表的《施政報告》,預料會交代「港人首置上車盤」具體措施。林鄭月娥昨透露,有關計劃對象是首次置業的香港永久居民,希望幫助相對較年輕的家庭上車,日後再進入私人市場。她明言「定價愈是可以負擔,限制一定會愈多」。她說,不會用現有公屋地興建上車盤,要找新的土地來源推行計劃。有學者提出,上車盤呎價6000至7000元是可行方向。

稱港不缺地 來源缺共識
林鄭月娥昨出席「仁人家園」主辦的房屋論壇上發言,重申房屋問題屬今屆政府首要處理事項,因民調一直顯示,港人希望政府首要處理房屋問題,而從管治角度而言,令每個人安居樂業亦是穩定社會的基礎。她強調香港並不缺乏土地,只是社會對土地從何而來缺乏共識,因此競選時已提出要尋求共識,但各方都要作妥協才能令社會整體受惠。
林太在論壇後透露首置上車盤內容,指出上車盤對象是首次置業的香港永久居民,買過居屋或擁有物業者都不符合資格。她希望幫助相對年輕的家庭先上車,隨着自己努力,未來有能力進入私人市場。至於定價,她表示詳細情况待施政報告公布,但明言「定價愈是可以負擔,限制一定會愈多」;她又說,房屋是重大民生議題,不是簡單商品。

麥美娟倡考慮收回高球場
泛民及建制政黨都表示同意計劃方向,提出首置上車盤的定價應以市民的負擔能力計算定價,不應與市價掛鈎。工聯會麥美娟認為應以申請者的負擔能力去定價,如入息中位數的30%。她認為首置上車盤不能佔用已規劃作公營房屋發展的土地,可考慮收回私人會所用地如高爾夫球場等;如以公私營合作方式發展上車盤,必須有嚴格限制,例如要求發展商必須優先發展和發售有關單位。
民主黨尹兆堅亦同意新上車盤與市價脫鈎,改為考慮建築成本及市民負擔能力;為免新上車盤淪為炒賣工具,尹兆堅認為單位轉售限制可長至10至15年,甚至只能出售予政府。但他憂慮若新上車盤以公私營模式發展,涉及批地優惠等補貼,會有官商勾結之嫌,故政府應利用市建局持有的土地發展新上車盤。

學者﹕每呎7000元是可行方向
實政圓桌召集人、立法會議員田北辰認為,首置上車盤應按住戶負擔能力釐定售價,業主5年後想轉售,除補地價外也應徵收「增值稅」,以免資助物業成為圖利工具。市建局非執董、城大建築科技學部高級講師潘永祥昨出席港台《千禧年代》時建議,首置上車盤的定價應略高於建築成本,約每平方呎約6000至7000港元是可行方向。
房協主席鄔滿海表示,首置上車盤的定價要考慮市民的負擔能力,可加可減,如樓價不斷上升,固定的折扣率未必合適。他認為可考慮公私營合作的方式興建這類單位,但仍要看政府整體政策,如有需要房協會配合。

2017 年 餘下3個月操作

2017 年過左3/4, 今年除左個市大升之後沽左D持股之外, 暫時未有動作

2017年年頭交收左樓三, 搞下裝修, 爆下水管玩到呢家. 雖然暫時未租出, 不過小子唔太心急租務, 因為裝修都未搞掂, 由佢擺一陣先.

由2017年3月小小子出世開始, 學湊仔, 讀書加學外語 (一向都學緊), 今年係好忙好忙的一年
而由今年年頭開始瘋狂儲錢加埋沽大量股票, 係為今年年尾出手買多一間三房俾屋企一個更好的生活環境

工作方面, SO FAR都係咁, 所以餘下3個月係只有一個買三房的操作要做, 其他都係持盈保泰


訓覺中........




星期日6場6!

2017年9月5日 星期二

香港股票市場日益妖魔化

中國農產品供股不獲批

【東方日報專訊】中國農產品交易(00149)於七月提出建議合股後,再大折讓供股及發行可換股票據的集資計劃,正式被香港交易所(00388)以損害股東利益為由拒絕。

或尋求覆核 今復牌
中國農產品於昨上午九時半起停牌,停牌前升1.7%,報0.119元。公司隨後公布,已收到港交所的決定信,表明拒絕向該公司就有關供股及配售可換股票據的上市授予批准。中國農產品已表明董事會不認同港交所的決定,並可能就港交所上市部決定尋求覆核。公司已申請今復牌。
中國農產品指出,港交所今次是根據上市規則第2A.06條,不就公司的供股及票據發行發出上市批准,其原因是其認為供股及票據發行不符合上市規則第2.03(5)條,有關集資計劃倘若進行,將損害中國農產品股東整體的利益,及公平有序的市場中更廣泛的公眾利益。

港交所:攤薄股東利益
港交所認為,中國農產品的的供股連同票據發行,將大幅攤薄不參與股東利益。中國農產品未能證明大幅折讓及高攤薄的集資屬合理;中國農產品未能證明其董事已經盡力尋求最優的集資架構及條款;而建議集資將造成大量碎股,使股東整體並未受到充分保護。
中國農產品於七月曾提出,在五合一後再以逾60%折讓供股,並發行可換股票據,尋求集資共逾14億元。有關供股原由宏安集團(01222)系內的位元堂(00897)參與包銷,而同系的易易壹金融(00221)亦參與認購。惟港交所及香港證監會早已就有關供股建議表達憂慮。

香港股票市場就係太多成日向股東伸手的企業
人人講價值投資, 計大折讓股可能係其中一個比較好的投資方法

但遇著一D存心搵小股東笨的公司 (最好莫過於睇偉哥BLOGGER)

其本上係防不勝防, 即使有偉哥的功力, 卻未有DAVID WEBB的資本及人脈
結果只可以成為板上釘釘. 任人魚肉

小子啱啱開學, 個PROF (Barrister at Law)講how shareholder could avoid being caught due to unlawful act, 正正就係呢班人做緊的動作及寫照

其中佢講, law is for the service of the rich, which is very sad but true.

2017年9月4日 星期一

保險的重要性

小子的樓三 (可以開名, 愉景灣) 突然間厠所鹹水閘制爆左

鹹水浸濕左本來買入已有的木地板, 同埋全新舖上的無縫地板 ($12,000)

好彩的係原來愉景灣管業處係會幫每間屋買左一份保險, 呢份保險可以CLAIM 到$37,000 同埋小子的家居保可以額外CLAIM埋個差額, 變相免費 (或者俾左$12,000)就可以重舖全屋地磚

對於小子來講係一件美事, 因為小子係好唔鍾意木地板的, 一來大OLD SCHOOL, 二來極度麻煩, 一濕水即係成間屋玩完.

今次重舖就非常GOOD了, 因為以後出租都唔駛煩.





















15% DSD

由下表可以睇到, 其實15% DSD係一個有效打擊炒細價樓的措拖

(住宅) 現適用於代表自己行事的香港永久性居民在購買住宅物業時, 在香港沒有擁有其他任何住宅物業
樓價(HK$) (舊) 從價印花稅率 (第二標準稅率)
不超於$2,000,000 $100
$2,000,001至$2,351,760 $100 + 超逾$2,000,000款額的10%
$2,351,761至$3,000,000 1.5%
$3,000,001至$3,290,320 $45,000 + 超逾$3,000,000款額的10%
$3,290,321至$4,000,000 2.25%
$4,000,001至$4,428,570 $90,000 + 超逾$4,000,000款額的10%
$4,428,571至$6,000,000 3%
$6,000,001至$6,720,000 $180,000 + 超逾$6,000,000款額的10%
$6,720,001至$20,000,000 3.75%
$20,000,001至$21,739,120 $750,000 + 超逾$20,000,000款額的10%
$21,739,121或以上 4.25%

如果你買4M 樓, 本來只係俾90,000 SD/ 180,000 DSD, 呢家要俾600,000 (即係原價的6倍幾)
 但係如果買>6.7M, 原本都係俾DSD 7.5%, 呢家係DSD ON DSD, 都係俾多7.5%.
相對起來, 買大價樓的肉赤程度係無咁低