收租樓的安全邊際

近期報章又來舖天蓋地式的唱淡, 今日低B ASS 的病卡又話港樓的最好時光已過去, 又講REITS 的DEFENSIVE POWER 高過樓

散戶OLD SAYINGS 話: 唔沽唔算輸, 當然你無借孖展買REITS 就一定唔會輸, 買中8號仔26蚊到呢家5合1 俾人CAP 乾左都唔叫做輸架, 買中27 銀河80幾蚊到呢家亦都唔算輸, 同樣, 2382 $160買呢家都未係輸, 因為有賭未為輸, 如果好似我咁$1 買番來 (沽左百幾年), 呢家叫大賺! 仲係賺幾十倍添!

唔沽唔算輸呢樣係散戶的永恆金科玉律, 同樣地, 97年買太古城350萬2房, 係唔沽唔算輸的原則下, 03年100幾200萬都唔駛沽, 到呢家係絕對可以成立, 2房閒閒地都1000萬-1200萬, 贏凸幾倍添, 所以話, 唔沽唔算輸係散戶黃金法則

但係, 2018年買樓收租的物業投資者, 究竟捱唔捱到下調357成? 甚至加息357厘呢? 係HKMA 壓測下, 能借到的, +3% 不過收入50% 係梗局, 絕對係油菜一碟

咁量化以數字來睇成件事, 又會唔會俾番個WHOLE PICTURE 出來睇到, 究竟收租樓的SAFETY MARGIN 有幾多?

假設買一件8M 的貨, 借400萬, 2.15% 30年供款, 月供係......$ 15,086

出租收幾多錢租? 約20,000 左右啦 (小子兄弟件貨都未夠8M 都收20K MARKET, 就當20K啦)

咁NET POSITIVE CARRY係 4,000 左右

2.15% 息加到 5.15%, 月供 21,841, 開始要貼錢了

加到8.15%? 月供 29,769, 貼左9,759!

咁係唔係代表會PK呢?

當然, 29,769 供款當中, 如果加到8.15%, 係只有2,000 左右的本金還款

即係業主拎9,759 出來, 只可以有2,000 落袋, 每個月要科7,759 出來

但唔好忘記, 要係DAY 1通過壓力測試, 借到400萬, 係要36,401.70月入, 仲要無咭數, 無PLOAN 等等

而 7,759, 係佔月入 21%, 即使打埋管理費差餉地租, 我俾盡30% - 35% 月入

其實守唔守到呢? 8.15% 利息下, 如果只有一間收租樓, 同股票一樣玩無限補時, 理應係無問題的

EVEN 加到12.15% 都係月供41,606; 貼21,606 出來, 佔業主月入 21,606/ 36,401.70 = 60%, 真係要慳D洗

如果兼夾跌價的話, 心理壓力一定會有D, 但以數論數, 要守的話, 一定守到

如果計加幾多厘先頂唔到? 15% 我估係一個合理數字, 仲要係短時間內, 因為業主每一個月都係還款中, 同埋有MORTGAGE LINK 下, 儲得多, BUFFER 大, 可以頂到的時間係愈來愈長

但觀乎美國的經濟, HISTORICAL MEAN 都係8% 左右, 加到12% - 15%, 似乎唔係咁有機會發生

守, 一定就守到; 但係到時有無好的投資物去令投資者沽樓買其實野呢? 只可以講, 世事如棋局局新, 好難估

加息, 亦都會令到一D無咁強的心理及持貨能力者震走出來, 亦都係樓市再洗牌的一個里程

當然, 如果你借爆同埋OVER LENDING, 頂唔到又唔係唔可以預見, 但李生話齋, 有50% 首期先買樓呢句真係值得大家珍藏, 因為50% 首期的樓, SAFETY MARGIN 係近乎無限

星展：今年樓價最高時期已過 

星展銀行(香港)研究部香港房地產業分析師丘卓文在記者會上指，本港樓市今年最高價時期已過，但他指對樓市影響最大並不是利息因素，因為加息情況可以預計，若加息50個點子，對樓市影響亦只有數個百分點，會令樓市出現較大調整的主要是貿易糾紛等外圍因素。

丘氏續指，以往樓市大幅調整，均由於經濟及金融市場波動，影響業主持貨能力，目前情況是否會轉化為危機，則仍需觀察。

丘卓文表示，本港大型地產股估值已作調整，相對而言，雖然REITs估值不算特別吸引，但若外圍環境波動，REITs防禦能力較高。此外，由於新世界(00017.HK)  -0.090 (-0.902%)    沽空 $4.94百萬; 比率 14.657%   中標航天城項目，料可受惠於港珠澳大橋等基建，中長期看好該股表現。(ac/a)(報價延遲最少十五分鐘。沽空資料截至 2018-09-10 12:25。)

低B ASS........ 

百年老舖落幕, 老千新貴上場

百年老舖東亞銀行 (23.HK) 將會於今日之後結束其恆指成份股的生涯, 同埋144 招商局都俾人踢埋出來
取而代之係1177 中生物 及2313 申洲

恒生指數服務公司昨日宣佈季檢結果，恒生指數成份股加入中國生物製藥（1177）及申洲國際（2313），東亞銀行（023）及招商局港口（144）爆冷被踢走，恒指成份股數目維持50隻，恒生中國企業指數成份股沒有變動。
 

真係要立此存照, 東亞半年純利39 億, 中國生物制藥 13億, 但市值計, 東亞780億而中生藥係1188億....

成交更加唔駛睇, 係東亞的N倍

繼2018, 2382, 175, 288 等等, 又加幾隻當炒股入來坑殺散戶, 叫MPF 被動基金接貨, 真係賤到一個點....

 * 稍後補圖, BLOGGER 貼圖真係好麻煩下 

債券雜談 - 紫光系重組 UNIGROUP/THSCPA/PKFOUN

因為近期教育風波, 國家正立令教育部的控股公司唔好再不務正業同埋要將旗下資產重組

從而市場傳出, 並在昨天落實紫光 (365.HK) 的CORPORATE RESTRUCTURE.

母公司清華大學, 直屬國資委 (SASAC), 宣佈將紫光持股賣俾高鐵新城和海南聯合 (30%/6%), 重組完成後將會淨番15%持股

對股票持有者當然影響唔係太大, 都係炒股一隻, 4.0 樓上, 年幾前入個D基本上要再坐多幾會, 但對於債券持有人的影響可謂不少

因為重組, 理論上清華持股跌超過50% 便會TRIGGER COC PUT (CHANGE OF CONTROL PUT), 即係債券持有人可以以101% (即係$101蚊) 沽番張債俾發債人

然而發債人話因為 高鐵新城和海南聯合都係間接CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CONTROL, 以中國術語講, "不用分得那麼細", 咁唔駛COC PUT 啦, 再補多句: COC PUT 我都夠錢找, 所以唔好搞咁多野啦 (無賴程度實在係似曾相識, 閣下自行演繹)

小投資者邊度會睇吖講真, 就算出事咪又係硬食.

如下圖, 市場上對清華GROUP, 包括PKFOUND (方正), TUSPARK, TSINGH, UNIGROUP 等等同系都敬而遠之, NUOXI CAPITAL (清華2023) 更加因為太長年期, 市場又無信心, 跌到89.3, YTM 8.3%

DEUTSCHE BANK BOND 枱係咁COMMENT:

Tus Holdings' new deal last week and announcements by some Tsinghua Unigroup companies that Tsinghua Holdings might transfer its stake has raised questions about possible CoC put. We don't have any details on the buyer, timing, percentage of stake to be sold, etc. But note that the genesis of this is China's requirement that universities should focus on education (local press is calling this China Universities Asset Reform). Hence Peking Founders could also come under the scanner at some point. We have a quick look at the bonds from these three issuers in this note. See Figures 1 & 2 for details of their outstanding USD bonds, and Figure 3 for the last available group structures.

One common feature across all the bond docs from all the issuers is poorly used language in the CoC definition. Amongst the various events that could trigger it, there are no transition words used between the first two events. See example below. Whether there should be an "and" or an "or" in between is open to interpretation. If we were to use common knowledge in Asia HY and the spirit of having CoC, CoC should trigger on the occurrence of any of the events (and not both). However, companies could possibly argue that both events have to be satisfied, which will likely make it difficult for the CoC to trigger. We are going with the assumption for now that there should have been an "or", and hence either of the events will suffice. Please see Figure 4 for CoC language in various bonds.

Example of CoC clause:

(i) Tsinghua University and any other person directly controlled by the central government of the PRC together ceases to directly or indirectly hold or own 100 per cent. of the issued share capital of Tsinghua Holdings;

(ii) Tsinghua Holdings, together with persons controlled by Tsinghua University, ceases to directly or indirectly Control the Company (Tsinghua Unigroup Co., Ltd.);

(iii) the Company ceases to directly or indirectly hold or own 100 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Guarantor; or

(iv) the Guarantor ceases to directly or indirectly hold or own 100 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Issuer.

Even with our assumption that there should be an "or", the CoC won't trigger in all the bonds as the newer ones (i.e., the Tsinghua 21s, 23s and 28s, and Tus Holdings 21s) already provide for a PRC government person to be a permitted holder. We think it's very likely for the stakes to be transferred to other SOEs (if at all). Obviously if the stakes are sold to high rated Central SOEs, bondholders will not want to put back the bonds at all. Amongst the older bonds where CoC could trigger, most of them are already trading close to the put price, with upside potential of just 2-3 points. The only exception is Peking Founders where bonds still offer decent upside in the envisaged scenario.

Separately, it's possible that companies try to do a consent solicitation once CoC is triggered and our read of the bond docs suggests that the threshold required for potential waiver is not high.

Net net, we don't see many convincing ways to play the story. Purely as an event driven trade on CoC, Peking 2023s ($90) look the most interesting to us. We note however that it's group structure is not simple, this is not an easy credit to monitor, there is nothing concrete at this stage to suggest Peking University is also considering stake sale like Tsinghua, and even if it does, CoC might not trigger.

即係連專業的BOND TRADER都唔知, 如果買債個D人真係以為係零風險的話, 小子可以講, 願主保佑你
You don't know you don't know , 如果無風無浪係好幸福的 

我只可以講, 美帝有CHAPTER 21, 大陸有龍門任搬360 

作為小投資者, 你地有無收到以下的GROUP CHART? 相信連間野有幾多隻債都未必清楚

仲要老孖債券?

摶, 從來都唔係問題, 問題係你知唔知自己賭緊咩同埋你又輸唔輸得起, 同埋咩情況下閣下會瀨野 

輸得起先有資格贏, 樓如是, 股債亦如是 

年中不少大股如2382, 2018, 175 都跌左50%, 未計新貴2007, 288 等等仲有準新貴1177 同埋其他當炒SECTOR 一致-50%, 其間指數回調20% 左右.

而樓方面, 太古城個買家輕輕一"TAT"都無左90萬, 沙一業主腳軟即沽15000/呎, 輸的程度不比股票少

有人話, 賣樓買債合埋眼, 其實真係比較危險, 對RISK ADVERSE的人, 債券可能係佢地的避風港, 可是功課真係要做足, 不能大安旨意

保險佬話齋, 你不理財, 財不理你
如何令到your money works for you? 

破壞家園系列, 業主的操守

本來想係三兄BLOG 度留個言睇下上手租客的破壞程度有幾高

因為小子其實唔係太識POST 相係回應 (OR POST 唔到, 唔深究了)

所以唯有呃POST 一個

雖然小子對習總非常尊敬, 個租客實在太了解國情, 整呀習大大張相係我間屋度

仲有BLUE TAPE 散彈槍N發, 再加鑽洞無數咁多個 (全屋鏟底再油係要20K 起跳架)

小子當日二話不說, 俾番按金佢簽埋退租書走人

另外, 呃POST都要UPDATE下租務情況的, 已同舊租客開續約條件, 加到21,000 (市價23,000, 公屋景), 舊價18,000

加左都係比市價平10%

我個相熟AGENT 話個租客都串串地, 拖左我一個月左右, 見到我個AGENT 話, 其實都唔係一定要住海怡, 可以住TKO 等等平租地區

誠然, 佢係講得啱, 但係住新樓的後遺症係年年俾無良業主拍走

小子多數都係好客就平市價10%, 另外2年先REVIEW 一次, 唔會好似某D業主咁年年REVIEW 咁無謂

因為好租不如好租客, 好來好去唔好煩仲好, 又唔差個幾千蚊開飯

不過, 一定唔可以平20%以上, 因為對自己的資產都會負番少少應有的責任

大灣區的183天稅務啟示

前幾日新聞講大陸限定左如果一個香港居民在內地一年超過183 日, 就要交大陸稅

呢個RULE 係根據香港同內地的稅務亙認(DOUBLE TAXATION ARRANGEMENT, DTA)

http://www.china-tax.net/china-tax/special-tax-treatments-applications/individual-income-tax-2.html

https://www.ird.gov.hk/eng/faq/dta_2006.htm

https://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2018/04/china-issues-new-rules

How is “Time in China” calculated?

• Scenario One: Foreign individuals residing in China for less than 90 days in a tax year (the “90-day Rule”)

A non-resident individual who has worked in China continuously or cumulatively for less than 90 days in a tax year only has to pay IIT on income for work done in China and for which the salary is paid by Chinese domestic institutions, entities or individuals. IIT on income derived from working outside of China or paid by a foreign employer outside of China will be exempt. If there is a double taxation agreement (DTA) in place between a foreign country and China, the 90-day limit may be extended to 183 days, depending on the relevant DTA.

• Scenario Two: Foreign Individuals Residing in China for More than 90 Days but Less than One Year (the “One-year Rule”)

An individual who has resided in China for more than 90 days but less than one year during the tax year is subject to IIT on all China-sourced income, including income paid by both Chinese and overseas entities for his/her work in China. Income earned while working overseas (i.e., foreign-sourced income) in the tax year is not Chinese IIT taxable.
 RELATED: Individual Income Tax for Expats in China

• Scenario Three: Foreign individuals residing in China for more than one year but less than five years

An individual’s period of residency in China is calculated based on the calendar year, excepting temporary absences from the country of up to 30 days continuously or 90 days cumulatively – which are not counted toward the individual’s stay in China.
A foreign individual who is deemed to have resided in China for more than one year but less than five years must pay IIT for income received from both Chinese and foreign employers for work conducted in China (China-sourced income), and also for income paid by Chinese employers during any temporary absences from the country. Income obtained from foreign employers for work done during a temporary absence is not taxable.

• Scenario Four: Foreign individuals residing in China for more than five years consecutively

A foreign individual who has resided in China for more than five years continuously may face new IIT liabilities identical to those of a resident individual of China, depending on the duration of his/her residency in China starting from the sixth year.
If a foreign individual resides in China for one year in the sixth or any following single year, he/she would be considered a resident individual under the IIT Law and therefore liable for IIT on income received globally for that specific tax year; if the individual resides in China for less than one year in the sixth or any following single year, he/she is subject to IIT on only China-sourced income, and the One-year Rule applies.
The five-year threshold will be reset if the individual resides in China for less than 90 days in any single tax year starting from the sixth year, in which case the “90-day Rule” will apply for that tax year. Understanding the “Five-year Rule” is especially important for foreign companies with expats working in China for the long-term as their IIT burden may be significantly reduced if their stay in China is managed properly.

其實好多人都唔係太清楚DTA的安排，除左183 D RULE 之外 (即係一年唔可以留超過183日), 最麻煩係SCENARIO 4, 即係如果持續留在中國超過5年的話, 都係會DEEMED TAXABLE TO IIT

而中國係行緊GLOBAL TAXATION. 即係全球的收入, 包括物業稅同埋其他收入都係會要課稅, 而稅率係40%左右 (睇收入同埋所在地區)

呢個稅不比其他發達國家如加拿大, 英美澳歐等等少

是以2047年前,香港的低稅率及簡單稅制依舊係對國際投資者, 同埋國內投資者係有莫大的吸引力

好可惜, 一國兩制係2047 年係會結束, 而稅制的回歸亦係可以預期

即係收租的租金要上繳40% 俾稅局, 同埋所有香港人的收入係打個6折

如是者, 資產及租金收入, 在新稅制融合下將變得不合理地低, 本身3%的回報可能變左做2%, 或1.5% 左右

至於資產價格方向, 小子就唔太會預測, 因為係30年後的事, 而在銀紙貶值下, 新稅制如果落實, 與其結合的EFFECT下會係點樣令到樓價升跌實在係TOO EARLY TO DEDUCE

但可以肯定一點係,到時外國資產如澳洲樓, 因為都係差唔多稅負, 而在COMMON LAW SYSTEM的保護下, 應該吸引力會比現在有所增加